Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett value investing strategy

Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value:


IR = Normalized EPS x Normalized PE ratio
Margin of Safety (MOS) = select stock selling for less than 2/3 of net current assets
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) = Total current assets - Total current liabilities - Long-term liabilities


Buffett's Intrinsic Value:


IR = FCF / (R-g)
Owners Earning = CF op - CF Investing = Net Income + Depreciation - Capex - Working Capital


Buffett's 10 Investing Principles:

1. Businesses which have a repetitive consumer need with products that: wear out fast, are used up quickly, have brand appeal.
2. Businesses that provide repetitive services that people and businesses are consistently in need of.
3. Products that most people have to buy at some time in their life.
4. A business that we understand - stay within your circle of competence.
5. The quality of management, especially on the quality of leadership, operated by honest and competent people.
6. The industry's leader with substantial market share in its products.
7. Look for a strong economic franchise, long-term pricing power, high barrier to entry.
8. Predictability - in its business model and operating results.
9. Available at a very attractive price, selling at 33% discount on its intrinsic value.
10. High potential growth with consistent high growth in business and performance. Favorable long-term prospects.

Recent done trades

I have done below two trades recently:

2 lots of China Minzhong @0.60 on 24.05

• Cut loss point 0.50
• Profit taking point 0.80

3 lots for Q&M dental @ 0.36 on 28.05

• Cut loss point 0.3
• Profit taking point 0.5

Moving Average

How to use Moving Average (MA) effectively in investing/trading:

For Stock/ETF Index Investing

Using MA50 and MA150 to identify the trends
1. If MA50 is crossing over MA150 and it is moving upwards - time to entry
2. If MA50 is crossing over MA150 and it is moving downwards - time to exit

For Forex Trading

Using EMA5, EMA20, and EMA50
1. EMA5 crosses above the EMA20
2. EMA20 crosses above the EMA50
3. EMA 20 is at least 30 pips (1 pip = 0.01%) above the EMA50

Z Score Bankruptcy Model

The formula as below:

Z = 1.2A + 1.4B + 3.3C + 0.6D + 1.0E

A = Working Capital / Total Assets (WC/TA)
A measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization.

B = Retained Earnings / Total Assets (RE/TA)
Retained earnings is the account whick reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. In addition, the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm.

C = Earning Before Interest and Taxes / Total Assets  (EBIT/TA)
A measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors.

D = Market Value of Equity / Total Liabilities (MVE/TL)
Shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.

E = Sales / Total Assets (S/TA)
The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets. It is one measure of management's capacity in dealing with competitive conditions.

Z > 3 : Safe Zone
1.8 < Z < 3 : Grey Zone
Z < 1.8 : Distress Zone

Top fishing (52-weeks high list) trading strategy

1. To pick stocks from the latest 52-weeks hight list.
2. Select stock price range from $20 to $50 per share.
3. Trading Volume > 200,000.
4. PE ratio < 50.
5. Avoid the very big market capitalization stock (market cap. < $5 billion).
6. Check out 6 months' stock chart - select stock have a clear tendency for a clear trend.
7. Avoid "defensive" stocks, like unitility, precious metals, food, oils, REIT etc.
8. Wee out take over situations.
9. Good earning growth rate > 10% and high ROE > 15%.
10. Diversifty among industry groups.

My Stock Portfolio review for 2011

My stock portfolio holding as of 30.12.2011:

10 lots China Gaoxian @ 0.190 - trading suspended (try to exit)
7.439 lots China Taisan @ 0.093 (try to exit)
5 lots First Reit @ 0.765 - dividends yield 5.8% (for long-term holding)
1 lot Yangzijiang @ 0.94  (positive outlook)

Total market value: $7,356.83
Totoal divestment: - $62.00
Total dividends: - $306.75 (HLS $81.25, First REIT - $225.50)

Market value for calculation: $7,725.58 - estimated annual return -9.8%.
If I don't take into account China Gaoxian my annual return will be -32%.
STI performance was -17%.

My stock portfolio holding as at 30.01.2011:

5 lots Best World @ 0.291 - wrong pick / sold all
5 lots China Gaoxian @ 0.341 - my biggest mistake / try to exit ASAP
5 lots First Reit @ 0.766 - good pick for passive incomes
5 lots HockLianSeng @ 0.316 - wrong pick / sold all

Total market value: $8,570.

MY UT investment 2011 return

Just done a simple calculation based on my 2011 year end closing market value of my UT holdings - my annualised return for 2011 will be -10.74%.

During the same period S&P 500 returned 1%, STI -17.00%, Asia Ex-Japan -18.40%, and Global Emerging Market -19.60%.

In 2010 my annualised return was 12.13%, which worked out an annualised compounding return of 0.04% since 2010 (seems no big difference like put my money at bank to earn the fixed deposite rate for the past two years). Nevertheless, in long term run I am still aiming to achive a above 7% annualised return for my UT holdings.

Review of my 2011 goals

2011 have passed, now it’s time for me to review my goal setting at the beginning of last year.
Here were my goals listed early 2011, let’s do a quick review now:

1. To quit my current job and switch into financial industry or start-up my own business.

Result – partial achieved, quitted my boring accounting job and jumped back to logistics/shipping industry again (with better pay, environments, and bosses)

2. To build a multiple investment portfolios which inclusive of Unit Trust, Singapore Stocks, and US Stocks.

Result – no much improvement from previous year, still pending to open option account and didn’t put in a lot effort in investing activities.

3. To pass CFP module 4 & 5 exam – passed

4. To Pass CMFAS M1A & M5 exam – passed M5, didn’t attend M1A.

5. To take up an entrepreneurship / business start-up course – completed a certificate in business skills for start-up @ Republic Poly

6. To reduce my body weight to below 70kgs – body weight still remain around 75kgs, no improvement at all.

7. To increase my accumulated net personal wealth by 50%. – Definitely failed due to marriage activities.

8. To read more than 100 books within a year. – didn’t spend too much time on reading due to a lot of personal commitments.

9. To talk to more than 1,000 peoples within a year (not inclusive my direct family members, close friends, colleagues, and normal daily social activities related personnal). – failed it was purely due to my personality and I think it is hard to achieve it.

10. To get married (after August). – Done in Nov.


Here is the summary of my 2011 performance:

1) What goals have I achieved or made progress on in 2011? Think of progress you have made in your career, relationships, health & finances
I did  quite well in term of studying activities - able to clear any courses which I am interested/attended.

2) What have I done this year that I am proud of? (e.g. Overcome a challenging setback? Helped someone in need? Etc…)
Make a right career switch with slightly pay increase, but still have room to improve my job hunting skills - this is 1st time took me more than 3 months to get a job offer.

3) How have you grown as a person? What new skills and knowledge have you gained in the last 12 months?
Definitely I improved my cummunication skills (after kept a year plus low profile when in my previous employment), and leant a lot of new things from a manufacturing company's perspect.

4) What are the most memorable and cherished moments of 2011?
My marriage on 20.11.2011

5) What are the lessons you have learned from setbacks and feedback in the past year? How has it made you a smarter and a wiser person?
The importance to build a mutual trust with your loved one, be patient all the time, never give up when facing short-term setbacks in your life.

Now it's time for me to think how to further advance my career, increase my incomes, imporve my personal networks.