Step 1: Looks for stocks with strong fundamentals
a. Profitability test:
ROE > 15%Gross Profit Margin above industrial average
b. Growth rate test:
EPSGR > 10%
c. Financial health test:
Debit/Equity Ratio < 0.5
Quick Ratio > 1
(Quick Ratio = current asset - inventories / current liabilities)
Long Term Debt < 3 times its annual net income
d. Undervalue test:
Current PE < Average PE
Average PE = (historical highest PE + historical lowest PE) / 2
Current PB ratio < industrial average
Step 2: To find a real bargain deal
a. How to calculate Intrinsic Value - to determine P(a)
a example to find P(a) Apple Inc.
last 10 years EPSGR% = 23.61% (from 2000 to 2009)
2009 EPS: $9.08
2019 estimated EPS = $9.08 x (1.2361)^10 = $75.62
last 10 years average PE ratio = 55.72 (from 2000 to 2009)
S&P 500 average PE ratio = 18.39
Since last 10 years PE ratio seems too high we will use S&P 500 PE ratio
2019 estimated stock price = $75.62 x 18.39 = $1,390.65
set IRR (internal rate of return) at 15%
Intrinsic Value = $1,390.65 / (1.15) ^10 = $343.37
P(a) = $343.37 x 75% = $257.53
b. Calculate P(b)
P(b) = P(52weeks low) + (P(52weeks high) - P(52weeks low)) / 3
Use Apple Inc. as a example:
P(b) = $185.55 + ($ 315 - $185.55)/3 = $228.70
c. Identify the fair stock value P(fair):
P(fair) = lower one of P(a) or P(b)
So P(fair) for Apple Inc. = $228.70
d. If P(current) < P(fair) is a indication to buy the undervalued stock
Current price $315 are too high, we should not buy it at this moment.
Step 3: Always remember we are buying a Business, not a Stock - Economic Moat
a. a strong management
b. in a growing industry
c. sustainable competitive advantage
- A strong brand (eg. Coca-Cola, Exxon Mobil, McDonals's, Visa, Google)
- Patents and trade secrets (eg. pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer)
- Gigantic economies of scale (eg. GE, Wal-Mart, Amazon)
- Market leadership that competitors very difficult to overtake (eg. GE, eBay)
- High switching costs that lock in customers (eg. Adobe, Microsoft)
- Monopoly status (eg. SPH, SGX, SMRT)
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